You won’t believe the real jobless numbers
(Jerome R. Corsi) The real U.S.unemploymentrate may be 22.1 percent for February, not the 8.9 percent reported by the government, according to economist John Williams, author ofthe “Shadow Government Statistics” website,who has argued for years that thefederal governmentmanipulates the reporting of economic data for political purposes.
According to Bureau of LaborStatisticsTable A15, the “not seasonally adjusted”unemploymentnumber for February was 9.5 percent.
Separately, Gallup disagreed with the BLS, reporting earlier this week thatunemploymenthad risen to 10 percent in mid-February,as seen in the following chart:
But Williams recreates an SGS (Shadow GovernmentStatistics) alternativeunemploymentrate reflecting methodology that includes “long-term discouraged workers” that the Bureau of LaborStatisticsin 1994 under the Clinton administration redefined away from those considered “unemployed.”
The BLS no longer considers as “unemployed” those workers without jobs who had not looked for work in the past year because they felt no jobs were available.
Williams demonstrated that it takes an expert to truly decipher BLSunemploymentstatistics.
For instance, in a Table A-15, titled “Alternative measures of labor underutilization,” the BLS reports what is known as “U6unemployment.”
U6unemploymentincludes those marginally attached to the labor force and the “underemployed,” such as those who have acceptedpart-time jobswhen they are really looking for full-time employment.
While the BLS was reportingunemploymentin February 2011 was only 8.9 percent, the BLS also was reporting U6unemploymentin February 2011 at 16.7 percent.
The only measure BLS reports to the public as the official monthlyunemploymentrate is the seasonally adjusted U3 number.
Williams calculates his “Official SGS AlternativeUnemploymentRate” by adding back in the BLS U6 numbers that include those long-term discouraged workers who have not looked for work in the past year.
Williams insists his Official SGS AlternativeUnemploymentmeasure is the most accurate estimate of trueunemploymentin that a reliable measure of long-term discouraged workers should be included in the statistical analysis.
A more completeunemploymenttable that includes both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjustedunemploymentpercentages for U3unemployment, as well as the same for U6unemployment, followed by the John Williams Official SGS AlternativeUnemploymentrate:
Increasingly, critics like Williams feel the seasonally adjusted U3 numbers reported by the BLS as the official monthlyunemploymentrate do not give a reliablepictureof the true magnitude ofunemploymentin the United States.
The monthlyunemploymentrate report turned out by the BLSdefines unemployment as those currently without a job who have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.
This definition excludes from the definition of unemployed those who have grown so discouraged that they are only marginally looking for work, as well as those who are considered underemployed because they have been forced to accept part-time or lower paying full-time employment because no other jobs are available.
To get an estimate of these other categories of unemployed, we have to turn not to the BLS monthlyunemploymentrate press releases, but toa less well-known table produced by the BLS, Table A-15, “Alternative measures of labor utilization.”
This revealsunemploymentfor February 2011 not at 8.9 percent, but as 9.5 percent, comparing the seasonally adjusted U3, theunemploymentpercentage the BLS reports to the public, with the not seasonally adjusted U3, theunemploymentpercentage the BLS reports only in detailed tables such as this one.
Looking at the not seasonally adjusted U6 data, theunemploymentrate jumps to 16.7 percent for February 2011, not the 8.9 percent seasonally adjustedunemploymentrate reported in the monthly BLSunemploymentrate press release.
Economist Jim Fitzgibbon, the head of the Highlander Fund,calls the BLS monthly unemployment rate report “worthless,”noting “the entire report is seasonally adjusted to be positive, while the non-adjusted data is just awful.”
So, where the seasonally adjusted U3unemploymentrate dropped from 9.4 percent in December 2010 to 8.9 in February 2011, the non-adjusted U3unemploymentrate is moving in the opposite direction, from 9.1 percent in December 2010 to 9.5 percent in February 2011.